Of course, the big news coming out of Utah Democratic politics today is the attempted removal of Ellen Brady by members of the SLCo Democratic Party Executive Committee. UtahPolicy.com editor Bryan Schott broke the news on his website. However, Schott has also been know for constantly slamming Utah Democrats while also claiming to be “on the left” whenever he is on a podcast. The way he accomplishes this is by stirring up the pot when it comes to political gossip, and today’s article is no exception.
In the case of the SLCo clusterf*ck, that is something that should be worrisome for Democrats. However, there is another line in the article that caught me by surprise. Others might have glanced over it, but I had to do a double-take. In his article, Schott said that Republicans “privately think they have a chance of winning HD 24”. Really, they do? Based on what?
Well, Democrats, you can breathe easy, because there is absolutely no way in hell that the Republicans even have the most remote chance of winning the seat being vacated by Rebecca Chavez-Houck. The fact that the claim has been made is extremely comical. But, just to make the point, let’s look at the numbers in this district to put this absurd idea behind us once and for all!
First, let’s look at the most recent election results. Here is how all of the Democratic candidates performed for the major offices in HD 24 in 2016.
Yes, not a single Democratic candidate received under 60%. In fact most were around or well into the 70% range, with Ben McAdams nearly hitting 80%. On average, the Democratic performance was 69.18% in HD 24. If we look at the movable vote in the district, even taking out two standard deviations of the mean, there is a 95% chance that a Democratic candidate would get 58.9% of the vote or more. Hell, let’s even take it to three standard deviations, making it a 99.7% chance that a Democratic candidate in this district would win 53.8% of the vote. Basically, it is impossible for a Democrat to dip below 50% in this district.
With that out of the way, what about precinct data. Here is a map of HD 24’s 2016 performance. Only one precinct shows any Republican tendencies, and that is Precinct SLC035, which is right across the street from The Beehive House and Temple Square, and only consists of a few blocks. Otherwise, almost every other precinct is deep blue.
So, when it comes to House District 24, I have no clue why Republicans feel that they can win it. Yes, there are always surprises. But looking at data from previous elections, it is impossible. I mean, really, it is statistically impossible. Therefore, I am not sure Republicans are telling UtahPolicy.com about this because, well, they will publish anything, or if some Utah Republicans have a delusional belief that they can actually win the seat. But Democrats don’t worry, you are safe!