Don’t worry Democrats, HD 24 is safe!

Of course, the big news coming out of Utah Democratic politics today is the attempted removal of Ellen Brady by members of the SLCo Democratic Party Executive Committee. UtahPolicy.com editor Bryan Schott broke the news on his website. However, Schott has also been know for constantly slamming Utah Democrats while also claiming to be “on the left” whenever he is on a podcast. The way he accomplishes this is by stirring up the pot when it comes to political gossip, and today’s article is no exception.

In the case of the SLCo clusterf*ck, that is something that should be worrisome for Democrats. However, there is another line in the article that caught me by surprise. Others might have glanced over it, but I had to do a double-take. In his article, Schott said that Republicans “privately think they have a chance of winning HD 24”. Really, they do? Based on what?

Well, Democrats, you can breathe easy, because there is absolutely no way in hell that the Republicans even have the most remote chance of winning the seat being vacated by Rebecca Chavez-Houck. The fact that the claim has been made is extremely comical. But, just to make the point, let’s look at the numbers in this district to put this absurd idea behind us once and for all!

First, let’s look at the most recent election results. Here is how all of the Democratic candidates performed for the major offices in HD 24 in 2016.

hd24 stats

Yes, not a single Democratic candidate received under 60%. In fact most were around or well into the 70% range, with Ben McAdams nearly hitting 80%. On average, the Democratic performance was 69.18% in HD 24. If we look at the movable vote in the district, even taking out two standard deviations of the mean, there is a 95% chance that a Democratic candidate would get 58.9% of the vote or more. Hell, let’s even take it to three standard deviations, making it a 99.7% chance that a Democratic candidate in this district would win 53.8% of the vote. Basically, it is impossible for a Democrat to dip below 50% in this district.

With that out of the way, what about precinct data. Here is a map of HD 24’s 2016 performance. Only one precinct shows any Republican tendencies, and that is Precinct SLC035, which is right across the street from The Beehive House and Temple Square, and only consists of a few blocks. Otherwise, almost every other precinct is deep blue.

 

democratic map hd 24

So, when it comes to House District 24, I have no clue why Republicans feel that they can win it. Yes, there are always surprises. But looking at data from previous elections, it is impossible. I mean, really, it is statistically impossible. Therefore, I am not sure Republicans are telling UtahPolicy.com about this because, well, they will publish anything, or if some Utah Republicans have a delusional belief that they can actually win the seat. But Democrats don’t worry, you are safe!

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10 Problems with Utah Democrats.

download(Updated note: I would like to say that I find this to be an issue with Democrats in the Salt Lake County and not from other counties. Democrats in other counties seem to actually want to move the party forward.)

Back in July, I was looking for a political job, particularly in Utah. I used to be the national committeeman for the Young Democrats of Utah and loved Democratic politics in the state because it was vibrant and productive, even in the face of steep challenges. I was so impressed with Democrats in Utah, I wrote an article about the party six years ago and recommended that the Florida Democratic Party could learn from Utah Democrats.

However, as I returned to Utah, a lot has changed, and the party structure is an absolute nightmare. To me, the glue that held the party together for so many years was the amazing Todd Taylor, the person who I respect the most in Utah Democratic politics, both past and present. But it seems like the party has gone downhill, really downhill, since his death. Therefore, I have jotted down some of the issues that I noticed in the Utah Democratic Party.

I don’t write this to make enemies, but instead to show the problems in the party. And honestly, I think it is hard for people to look in the mirror and notice their own problems, which is why it is time for someone from the outside to examine to problem through a different lens.

Problem #1: Personal rivalries are killing Utah Democrats. Continue reading “10 Problems with Utah Democrats.”

Welcome to Elections Utah

Utah-flag-lowHello everyone,

My name is Dave Trotter and welcome to my blog, Elections Utah. As the title suggests, this blog will examine elections within the State of Utah. I will be looking at stories that are impacting elections in the state, but mostly be examining the numbers and geography behind politics in Utah.

This site is not going to be flashy, but instead informative. I am just starting it off now, and it will eventually evolve over time. As of right now, getting stories on the site is the highest priority.

As some of you already know, this blog will look at things from a Democratic Party perspective of Utah politics. So yes, there will be a Democratic bias. However, as someone who identifies as a moderate Democrat, I will probably not be discussing ideology, unless we have some data that can discuss ideology. Also, in the case of partisanship, I will try to remain as unbiased as possible.

This blog is just one part of Sigma Strategies, LLC, which is a campaign consulting company that consults on all aspects of political campaigns. Please visit our website here.

Again, thanks for your time and I hope you enjoy this site. Any criticism is welcomed.

Cheers,

Dave Trotter